(ĐTCK) Linh hoạt thích ứng với khó khăn của đại dịch Covid-19, ngành dệt may đang đứng trước cơ hội “nóng lại” nhờ sức cầu hồi phục mạnh trên thị trường thế giới.
1. Xuất khẩu dệt may Việt Nam phục hồi ấn tượng
Dệt may là một trong những ngành sản xuất chủ lực của nền kinh tế, chiếm từ 12 – 16% tổng kim ngạch xuất khẩu cả nước. Năm 2021, Hiệp hội Dệt may Việt Nam (Vitas) ước tính, tổng kim ngạch xuất khẩu toàn ngành đạt 39 tỷ USD, tăng 11,2% so với năm 2020 và tăng 0,3% so với năm 2019.
Riêng trong tháng 11, Tổng cục Hải quan công bố kim ngạch xuất khẩu hàng dệt may đạt 3,04 tỷ USD, tăng 15,2%, tương ứng tăng 401 triệu USD so với tháng trước.
Việt Nam đã thay đổi chính sách phòng chống dịch bệnh Covid-19 từ “Zero Covid” sang “sống chung với Covid” – vừa thích ứng an toàn, linh hoạt, kiểm soát hiệu quả dịch Covid-19 vừa phục hồi, phát triển kinh tế. Các doanh nghiệp cũng nhanh chóng cho thấy khả năng phục hồi ấn tượng ngay sau khi bắt nhịp với trạng thái “bình thường mới”.
Công ty cổ phần Đầu tư và Thương mại TNG (mã TNG) cho biết, doanh thu thuần trong tháng 11/2021 đạt 434 tỷ đồng, tăng 37% so với cùng kỳ 2020. Khấu trừ các chi phí và thuế, Công ty ghi nhận lãi sau thuế đạt 20,7 tỷ đồng, tăng mạnh so với khoản lãi 7,9 tỷ đồng cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Biên lãi gộp cũng được cải thiện từ 13% lên 16%.
Tính chung 11 tháng đầu năm, doanh thu của TNG đạt gần 5.000 tỷ đồng và lãi sau thuế đạt gần 214 tỷ đồng, lần lượt tăng 18% và 38% so với cùng kỳ năm 2020. So với kế hoạch kinh doanh với doanh thu đạt 4.798 tỷ đồng và lợi nhuận sau thuế đạt 175 tỷ đồng, Công ty đã vượt lần lượt 4,2% và 22,3% kế hoạch năm.
Trong khi đó, Công ty cổ phần Dệt may Đầu tư Thương mại Thành Công (mã TCM) tổng kết tình hình kinh doanh tháng 11/2021 với doanh thu đạt xấp xỉ 12,8 triệu USD (tương đương 294,4 tỷ đồng), tăng nhẹ so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái và tăng hơn 10% so với tháng trước đó. Kết quả, Công ty báo lãi ròng đạt 143.096 USD, tương ứng 3,3 tỷ đồng.
Lũy kế 11 tháng đầu năm nay, TCM đạt doanh thu xấp xỉ 136,9 triệu USD và lãi ròng 5,1 triệu USD; tương ứng hoàn thành lần lượt 77% và 41% kế hoạch năm. Công ty cho biết thêm, hiện các đơn hàng đã được nhận đến quý II/2022 và đang chuẩn bị nhận đơn hàng cho quý III/2022.
Tại Tổng công ty May 10 (mã M10), ông Thân Đức Việt, Tổng giám đốc cho hay, trong quý IV/2021, May 10 đã tăng cường công suất để bù đắp những đơn hàng bị lùi thời hạn giao hàng trong quý III và đơn hàng tăng trưởng trong thời điểm cuối năm.
“Đến hết năm 2021, May 10 sẽ đạt doanh số trên 3.400 tỷ đồng, vượt so với năm 2019 – giai đoạn chưa có dịch Covid-19. Nếu chỉ tính riêng doanh thu may mặc, do có doanh thu từ sản xuất khẩu trang nên chỉ trong năm 2021, chúng tôi đã tăng trưởng 17% so với cùng kỳ năm 2020”, ông Việt thông tin thêm.
Ông Vũ Đức Giang, Chủ tịch Hiệp hội Dệt may Việt Nam (Vitas) đánh giá, những kết quả đạt được đã khẳng định nỗ lực vượt qua khó khăn, thách thức, nhanh chóng thích nghi của doanh nghiệp ngành dệt may với tình hình mới, kịp thời chuyển đổi cơ cấu mặt hàng, đảm bảo việc làm, thu thập ổn định cho hàng triệu người lao động.
2. Triển vọng sáng của dệt may Việt Nam trong năm 2022
Năm 2022, Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế (IMF) và Ngân hàng Thế giới (World Bank) dự báo tăng trưởng GDP toàn cầu sẽ đạt 4,9%. Riêng nhu cầu với sản phẩm dệt may thế giới sẽ quay trở lại bằng mức của năm 2019, đạt khoảng 740 tỷ USD.
Đánh giá về triển vọng ngành dệt may năm 2022, nhóm nghiên cứu của Công ty Chứng khoán Vietcombank (VCBS) cho rằng, các hiệp định thương mại tự do như EVFTA, CPTPP sẽ tiếp tục hỗ trợ tích cực cho hoạt động xuất khẩu dệt may Việt Nam. Bên cạnh đó, thị phần dệt may của Việt Nam tại Mỹ, EU vẫn mở rộng.
Chỉ số tiêu dùng ngày càng tăng sẽ mang lại cơ hội lớn cho ngành dệt may, nhất là khi độ phủ vắc xin ngừa Covid-19 tại các thị trường chủ lực như Mỹ và EU ngày càng cao.
Đặc biệt, Covid-19 làm thay đổi một số xu hướng của ngành, trong đó có xu hướng dịch chuyển nguồn cung ứng dệt may thế giới ra khỏi Trung Quốc và Việt Nam là một trong những điểm đến của các nhà nhập khẩu.
Căn cứ vào tình hình thực tế, Vitas đã đưa ra ba kịch bản tăng trưởng trong năm 2022. Kịch bản 1, nếu tình hình dịch bệnh được kiểm soát cơ bản vào quý I/2022, kim ngạch xuất khẩu toàn ngành sẽ đạt 42,5 – 43,5 tỷ USD.
Kịch bản 2, nếu tình hình dịch bệnh được kiểm soát vào quý II/2022, kim ngạch xuất khẩu đạt mức trung bình 40 – 41 tỷ USD. Kịch bản 3, nếu dịch bệnh còn diễn biến phức tạp và kéo dài đến cuối năm 2022, kim ngạch xuất khẩu đạt mức thấp nhất 38 – 39 tỷ USD.
Dẫu vậy, cũng có một số bài toán mà các doanh nghiệp trong ngành cần giải để tận dụng được cơ hội từ sự phục hồi về nhu cầu tiêu thụ sản phẩm dệt may trên thị trường thế giới cũng như xu hướng chuyển dịch trên thị trường dệt may. Đó là việc phụ thuộc vào nguồn nguyên liệu nhập khẩu và bài toán thiếu lao động.
Theo ông Thân Đức Việt, khoảng 60% nguyên phụ liệu ngành dệt may là nhập khẩu, chủ yếu là từ thị trường Trung Quốc. Sự phụ thuộc nguyên vật liệu nhập khẩu duy trì ở mức cao đã khiến không ít doanh nghiệp dệt may từng “ngồi trên đống lửa” do các đối tác chậm trễ trong công tác giao hàng. Nhất là trong đợt dịch cao điểm, toàn ngành đã bị ảnh hưởng từ 20 – 30% năng lực sản xuất.
Về thị trường lao động, Trung tâm Nghiên cứu và quan hệ lao động đã làm một cuộc khảo sát ngành dệt may trong đợt dịch Covid-19 vừa qua.
Kết quả, với những doanh nghiệp có trả lương và hỗ trợ người lao động trong giãn cách đã phục hồi trên 80% sau hơn 1 tháng; còn với doanh nghiệp gặp khó khăn hoặc không hỗ trợ thì tỷ lệ người lao động ngừng việc lên tới 25 – 50%.
Ngoài ra, sản xuất trong tình hình dịch bệnh vẫn tiềm ẩn nhiều rủi ro, Công ty Chứng khoán Mirae Asset Việt Nam đã lưu ý chi phí hoạt động liên quan đến Covid-19 như xét nghiệm, tái bố trí sản xuất, chi phí sản xuất tăng do áp lực lạm phát có nguy cơ bào mòn biên lợi nhuận của các doanh nghiệp ngành này.
Chính vì thế, Tập đoàn Dệt may Việt Nam đã đưa ra ba kịch bản tăng trưởng của ngành dệt may trong năm 2022 tương đối thận trọng.
Kịch bản cao là từ quý IV/2021 đến quý I/2022, có trên 80% lao động quay trở lại nhà máy sản xuất, kim ngạch xuất khẩu có thể đạt mức 40 tỷ USD (tương đương mức trung bình của Vitas). Trong khi với kịch bản thấp là trong quý I/2022, chỉ huy động được dưới 60% lao động và mỗi quý tiếp theo tăng thêm 10%, kim ngạch xuất khẩu chỉ đạt 36 tỷ USD.
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It s just a kind of true essence pearl transformed from the true essence of a desolate beast.Next, Lin Haoming slowed down his movement speed, but even so, after more than a day, he passed through this area.
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Tyrant knife cut. This knife seems to be able to split everything.Lin Xuan didn t care about this sudden change of attitude.
Is there another great sect coming There is even the arrival of the Huanggu Emperor Clan, which is really unbelievable.All the caves have industries in these giant cities.
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Don t worry, they can t run away. The stars in the sky are twinkling, and then spread quickly.If he had slapped him to death before, he would have slapped him to death.
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The heaven is centered on Tianyuan Island, surrounded by four continents, and then the sea and overseas islands.Elder, this is the deacon elder of the Tongxin League, Liu Xuan, Mrs.
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In her mind, her biggest weakness was her guilt towards Liu Tianbo, especially knowing that Liu Tianbo was killed by Qi Tianlong.replied. At this time, Lan Qingyu had already walked near the prison.
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If you are stubborn, then your lips and tongue will be removed.Thinking back carefully to the fight with the Earth Fire Spirit before, he was really intimidated by the opponent s aura at first, but when the opponent flew into the air, he found a flaw.
After Mu Gu saw it, he quickly sacrificed a huge black shield, completely covering his body under it, followed by a blanket like treasure, wrapped it around his body, and released a powerful spiritual light to completely protect his body.Master, who do you think Yin Fengling is Shu Siyue asked.
You
Just when Cui Changting was about to refute, several figures came in suddenly, and the leader among them was Mrs.Fang Buque was not a courageous person in the first place.
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The Taixu Realm cultivator glanced down, and when he saw Huang Tiandu, he immediately said My lord, you are here too, quickly take this Xuanling blood Gu, don t let her run away Ningxiang Seeing such a scene, Jia Qiniang became a little excited.Not to mention the thief city, you can gallop in the whole Cang County, and later And my husband s guarantee Shu Siyue said.
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Give me your hand Shu Siyue ordered. Yin Fengling could only follow suit.Madam Weng patted her shoulder lightly, and said softly Since we are worried, let s go in, so as not to worry outside Let s go in, will this disturb him Shi Ruolan was even more worried after hearing this.
After fighting fiercely for more than half an hour, the poisonous mist was finally almost consumed, and the figure of the dragon under the mist could be seen directly with the naked eye.
